Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 7, December 2006

The Queen’s Speech: Cicero review

By John Rowland

In October we looked ahead to the Queen’s Speech and predicted what we thought might be in store for the 2006/2007 session. This was to be Tony Blair’s tenth, and final, Gracious Speech and his last chance to secure the legacy that he is said to crave. But when it was revealed on the morning of the 15 November that the theme of ‘security in a changing world’ was to lead the speech, it said as much about Gordon Brown’s ambitions as it did about Blair’s.

The speech mentioned 25 bills and four draft bills. Among those were several bills that had been widely expected to appear. From a financial services perspective, we got the predicted bills on pensions, welfare reform (carried over) and the regulation of investment exchanges. Cicero also predicted a climate bill—and it is a mark of the effectiveness of the climate lobby that something that was off the radar just a few months ago became a pretty good punt for inclusion in the forthcoming programme.

But, in this Queen’s Speech at least, the big-ticket items were sponsored by the Home Office, with bills on counter-terrorism, immigration, criminal justice and organised crime to be brought forward—as well as the Government pressing on with ID cards. This is significant because it will form the legislative backdrop against which the Blair/Brown handover will finally take place.

Gordon Brown has positioned himself robustly on security and home affairs recently, an area that Home Secretary, John Reid has sought to dominate himself. David Cameron has seized on the apparent tension between the two by accusing them both of playing politics with terror, and being in a competition to try and ‘out tough’ each other. But even discounting all the political manoeuvring and Opposition puff, what makes this relationship potentially more volatile is that while the scope of the majority of the bills in the Queen’s Speech has already been set out, the contents of the flagship counter-terrorism bill are, as yet, unknown. The measures in the Bill will be decided by a review of policy being undertaken by the Home Office. But there is also a far-reaching, and seemingly parallel, review of security policy being undertaken as part of the Comprehensive Spending Review under the auspices of the Treasury.

Whether a compromise between the Labour heavyweights is reached, or whether a serious row develops, remains to be seen. But in any case this session is set to be a memorable one, with a full legislative programme and some contentious bills. The first pensions bill and welfare reform bill, where there is a relatively strong cross-party consensus, will probably pass through relatively unhindered. But the measures on home affairs will be bitterly fought over and we can expect to see a lot of buffeting of bills as they pass through the Lords. Blair will be working doing all he can to push legislation through before his departure, but Brown has got his work cut out too.

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John Rowland can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9530 or click here to email.

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