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Cicero Policy BrieferIssue 15, August 2007
“Don’t panic, the new Prime Minister’s
in charge!”
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| “What we are seeing is a change in Brown’s presentational DNA” |
For more years than I can remember, political punditry has predicted choppy waters for both Britain and the Labour Party if Gordon Brown ever became Prime Minister. Many have forecast open civil war between the defenders of the Blairite New Labour flame and the Treasury Brownites. But, with the country’s infrastructure and resolve being severely tested by both climate change and attempted terrorism—the “two compelling narratives of the 21st century”1—we have witnessed what I believe to be one of more self-assured and statesmanlike starts by a British Prime Minister. Where are the naysayers of the broadsheet comment columns now?
The silence of the critics is deafening. It is reminiscent of the 1997 General Election and those people who threatened to leave the country if Labour won; following the election they all went quiet, forgot to leave and even had the cheek to say they had voted Labour!
But back to Gord, as the Sun has christened him; what has changed? In the earlier years of his career, the new PM was renowned for his different approach to the world of politics, but that is not what is most apparent now. What we are seeing is a change in Brown’s presentational DNA; what is the cause?
I think a clue can be found in polling undertaken by Communicate Research2 for an edition of Newsnight in May 2007, which showed:
I believe that poll highlighted to Brown a potential nightmare term of office, perceived as being untrusted, arrogant and out of touch with core voters—the ‘hard-working families’ of traditional Labour parlance—and a forecast of subsequent electoral defeat.
However, it was not all bad news for the PM. The polling also found that Cameron trailed Brown on issues which play well in response to the current emergencies of terrorism and flooding: Brown carried more conviction on areas that required him to be ‘tough’ and ‘a man of conviction’.
There is no doubt that Brown, like Blair before him, is paying close attention to the polls. Regarding Iraq, the same Newsnight poll found that only 17 per cent of respondents thought Gordon Brown had the right stance, lagging considerably behind Cameron (26 per cent) and Ming Campbell (31 per cent). Could this provide the clue to the decision to appoint Lord Malloch Brown, a well known critic of US foreign policy, to the Foreign Office, a shift in emphasis towards Afghanistan, and a focus on the reduction of troops in Iraq?
It is interesting to note that 55 per cent thought Cameron was ‘too concerned with spin’, compared with 46 per cent for Brown—a tactic which went off course for the former on his recent trip to Rwanda. By contrast, Brown got the greater credit for visiting flood victims and dealing with domestic issues.
Change for Brown has come quickly, and it has been seen and believed by the public. Just two months after the May poll Brown has announced:
The key question for Labour election strategists is: how can they sustain this momentum? Despite the positives, his ‘bounce’ is still currently less than John Major’s in 1990, whose poll ratings improved by an average of 12 per cent compared to Brown’s 5 per cent since taking office.
For my part, I welcome the new style Gordon Brown premiership. In the words of a well-known popular song, the Prime Minister can definitely say “I’ve seen fire and I've seen rain”3—and I will be watching to see whether Brown’s run-up to the next General Election will continue to be a trial by ordeal.
Terry Paul can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9533 or click here to email.
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By
Terry Paul