Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 12, May 2007

For the shape of a Gordon Brown government, look towards Holyrood

By Iain Anderson

Not for the first time are the fortunes of a Westminster government set to be determined by the level of support from the SNP.

Many older hands for Labour in Scotland still hark back to the motion of confidence in the government of Jim Callaghan in the early spring of 1979, when the SNP voted with the opposition and brought down the Government—heralding the election of Margaret Thatcher.

Now we have a devolved Parliament in Edinburgh which—on current polling—looks set to see the SNP as the largest single party pressing for a referendum on independence.

One of the latest poll of polls capturing analysis from ICM, YouGov, Populus and System Three shows the SNP on 37%, Labour on 30%, Lib Dems on 13% and the Conservatives on 13%. If this is the result which carries through to polling day tomorrow, Labour will lose its hegemony over the Scottish political scene for the first time in decades.

Viewed from a UK-wide perspective, the most interesting turn in politics will be the impact which a disastrous result for Labour in Scotland—Gordon Brown's own backyard—has on the course of the Labour leadership election in coming weeks.

For me, it is still hard to see a credible candidate emerging who will be able to challenge Brown—he seems to have watertight backing from the unions and the constituency parties. It is only the parliamentary party, concerned about its own fortunes at the next election, which seems to be in fright right now.

But the Holyrood outcome may just provide a significant clue as to who might be the UK's next Chancellor. For the the opposition parties at Westminster will make much of the rejection of Labour at the polls and the number of Scottish Labour figures in the UK Government.

For some time now the expectation has been that Gordon Brown would reward one of his key lieutenants, Alistair Darling, with the keys to Number 11. However, like Brown, Darling is a Scot representing a Scottish constituency. This may be a very difficult appointment to make in the context of a bad set of polls north of the border.

Equally, what happens to other Brownite cabinet members Douglas Alexander and Des Browne-also Scottish MPs—in this scenario?

Money is increasingly being placed on Jack Straw, the Chancellor's campaign manager for No 10, emerging as Chancellor—allowing him to hold the final key office of state, having been both Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary under Blair.

So if you want to know what a Brown government might look like in late June, just stay up and watch the telly on 3 May with a wee dram and an eye on Edinburgh that night.

Iain Anderson can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9532 or click here to email.