Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 17, October 2007

The EU Reform Treaty and the UK General Election

By James Allen

During the recent speculation about a General Election in the UK, an ongoing question which will follow Gordon Brown during his premiership reared its head: whether the Government should have a referendum on the adoption of the EU Reform Treaty. The document, which comes from the ashes of the now-defunct Constitutional Treaty, has been labelled this week in a less-than-glowing report from the European Scrutiny Committee as "substantially equivalent" to its predecessor. No votes in referenda on the Constitution in France and the Netherlands saved the Government’s blushes last time around and Brown is currently in no mood to entertain the idea of holding one, but the Conservatives—buoyed by a forceful campaign by the Sun and an unlikely bedfellow in the Unions-may well make it a major issue.

The European question is seldom at the top of the voter’s agenda—as the Conservatives found out to their cost in 2001 campaigning against the euro. The charge from Labour, which seemed to strike a chord with the electorate, was that the ‘real’ issues of the economy and public services were simply being ignored by the Opposition. In general, though, the Conservatives are ahead in the polls on the European issue. Asked at the end of September which of the main parties is best placed to handle a number of policy areas, 33 per cent backed them on Europe, compared to just 9 per cent each for Labour and the Liberal Democrats1.

Labour in government has been cautiously pro-European, but has seldom made much comment on European issues, preferring to only mention its pro-Europeanism in a defensive context. Labour’s activity in the EU has slowed in its second and third terms, while UK membership of the euro looks as far away as it did in 1997-if not further. Gordon Brown’s first speech as party leader made several references to “Britishness” and the protection of British workers, but was light on the detail of how the UK’s relationship with the EU benefits both the economy, wider society and the workforce.

The Government’s argument on the Reform Treaty has been that it has secured opt-outs on some of the more contentious issues and that its red lines have been upheld. The Government hasn’t handled the question of a referendum as well as it could have done: although there is no constitutional imperative to have a referendum, it has certainly not always pursued this line unequivocally. If there were, however, still any doubt that the PM may budge on his no-referendum stance, then his call this week to put off a snap election has put the final nail in the coffin. Had we had a general election this autumn, there could have been an outside chance that he would have accepted a referendum in attempt to move the issue the election radar-à la Blair’s decision in 2004 to accept a referendum on the Constitution ahead of the 2005 general election). Now, though, with the Brown bounce having been well and truly brought back down to earth, public votes of any description will look anything but appetising to the Prime Minister.

• Ipsos MORI poll. 30 September 2007.

James Allen can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9540 or click here to email.

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