Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 17, October 2007

Pre-Budget Report: Cicero Analysis

By Iain Anderson

Well, that was short and sweet! In fact, this week’s Pre-Budget Report was one of the shortest Budget or PBR speeches for quite some time. So I will also keep this short and to the point.

Perhaps the speech needed to be shorter than planned, for there is no doubt much of the PBR and CSR was hastily re-written over the weekend since the Prime Minister's decision to abandon an early General Election, stripping out much of the policy detail which might have been the launch pad for any poll.

If only the Chancellor could turn the clock back a week, it would have been very interesting to see just what the speech might have looked like. Very different and perhaps somewhat longer might be the answer.

Alistair Darling's first Budget speech was typically workmanlike—for that is his style. One could hardly say there was anything eye-catching in the statement beyond the obvious attack on the new Tory policies.

Beyond the Comprehensive Spending Review commitments which were pretty much as expected, there is no doubt that the Chancellor was forced into addressing the inheritance tax issue as a result of the dramatic effect on electoral fortunes since the Tories unveiled their package in Blackpool last week.

While his decision to raise the IHT threshold to £700,000, allied to his changes to the non-dom regime, allowed the Chancellor to answer the Tory tactic, the question remains of just how effective the politics of all this will be.

The big question will always remain of the PBR 2007: will the electorate regard this as a political turning point?

For Alistair Darling—a case of what might have been!

Full Cicero analysis of the Pre-Budget Report can be downloaded here

Iain Anderson can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9532 or click here to email.

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