Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 16, September 2007

Party Conference Season Preview

By James Allen

It is against the backdrop of a greatly changed political landscape that the forthcoming party conference season looms; and, as we head towards the next parliamentary session, the prospect of a General Election is at the forefront of everyone’s minds.

Gordon Brown has finally moved next door into No 10 and into the Prime Ministerial job that he has craved for so long. Undefeated by terrorist attacks, a potential recurrence of the foot and mouth outbreak and nationwide flooding, Brown has built and maintained a healthy lead in the majority of polls. He has successfully distanced himself from the more negative parts of the Blair legacy—or so it appears thus far.

The key question now is whether Brown will gamble on a snap election, possibly even this side of Christmas. There are some signs that this will indeed be the case: the lead in the polls and general disarray amongst Tory ranks may not last and Brown will see this as potentially the best chance to secure his own workable majority and mandate. Furthermore, the worst of Labour’s financial woes appear to be over and it looks likely that adequate resources for a campaign could be quickly secured. Brown has moved his speech to the Monday at Labour conference, a spot generally reserved for the Chancellor, thus further fuelling speculation that an election could be called on the first main day of conference, thus throwing Tory conference plans and policy reviews into chaos.

However, there is a danger of over-analysing the Government’s every move here. Brown has never been known as a gambler, and he knows that a poll lead could quickly evaporate if interest rates rise or the Government fails to get control over headlines on violent crime. Brown is playing a potentially dangerous game in talking such a tough game with the unions over public sector pay—though to be seen to be ‘caving in’ would be electoral suicide in the marginal seats of London and the South East.

In contrast to Brown’s generally very positive start, there is trouble brewing in Conservative ranks for Cameron to contend with. Since the grammar schools row earlier this year, Cameron’s strong progress in the polls and in the media since becoming leader in December 2005 has been somewhat slowed. The Tory advances appear to have been blown off course altogether in recent weeks, at least temporarily. There was considerable confusion over the apologies about apologising, or not, over hospital closures in various parts of England, though it transpired that a junior researcher was to blame—as is so often the case in politics.

In the wake of the Redwood Review, Cameron has been trying valiantly to stay on course while throwing occasional treats to the Tory right—including a strongly worded speech on potential curbs to immigration under a future Conservative government and more talk of being tough on crime.

For their part, the Liberal Democrats have been struggling for a while now, having under performed in both local and devolved elections in May. Second place in the Ealing Southall by-election has taken some of the heat off Menzies Campbell, but the party membership will be looking to come out of conference season with a clear sense of direction.

This will prove to be a fascinating conference season. Brown’s first as PM, particularly with speculation about the election, should offer a real opportunity to rally the troops, keep the party onside and bask in a week of positive media coverage. Cameron will need to regain some lost ground after a traumatic summer, and Campbell will simply be hoping that he’ll be keeping his job. I still wouldn’t bet against a snap election—but remember also the small income tax cut from Brown’s last budget, which will be hitting pay packets from April 2008 for many swing voters in the ‘middle Britain’ that we hear so much about. This would make a May 2008 election look attractive. If, however, the polls remain consistently strong for Labour over the next few weeks, I think we could be hitting the campaign trail with a seemingly endless pile of leaflets this side of Christmas.

James Allen can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9540 or click here to email.

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