Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 16, September 2007

The Brown ‘bounce’ revisited

By Julia Clark, Head of Politics, Ipsos MORI, and 

James Baglin, Research Executive, Ipsos MORI   

This wasn’t how it was meant to be, was it? After 10 years of Blair’s New Labour, weighed down by Iraq and much else besides, received wisdom had it that we should have cornered the right-hand man waiting not-so-patiently for his turn. The so-called miserly Chancellor, the pension grabber, the Scotsman. Forever part of the Blair machinery, without the spin or charisma to propel it. Or not…

Though the media have reacted with almost unanimous surprise to Gordon Brown’s impressive poll standings since taking office, history shows that new leaders normally enjoy a warm reception from the electorate and, with this in mind, Brown’s impressive opening showing shouldn’t be seen wholly as a shock.

That said, in the opening period of his newly acquired premiership, it seems Gordon Brown has acquitted himself well. The bomb plot in his inaugural days at No 10 apparently couldn’t foil him, the apocalyptic floods seemingly didn’t drown him, and his measured tone with George W Bush was indicative of a purpose to steer his Labour away from that which went before. A chord seems to have been struck and it has been reported that the green/blue tree of David Cameron’s Conservatives is starting to wilt.

In early June, Ipsos MORI found that only a fifth of the British public thought Brown would do better than Blair as leader; indeed, a similar proportion thought he would actually perform worse than his predecessor. In May, our Political Monitor echoed this scepticism, showing a (+) 2 point Conservative lead over Labour among those absolutely certain to vote. Fast forward to July and Labour were now enjoying a (+) 6 point lead over the Tories. Other pollsters found the same trend, and the press found their story: the ‘Brown bounce’.

A closer look at the figures shows that the bounce really begun once Blair left office but has continued to rise with Brown’s early performance. The Conservatives, however, aren’t quite in the dire straits some have suggested. They remain only two points down on our May pre-Brown poll and in that month they were actually still leading. The Liberal Democrats have actually suffered the most from this latest Labour surge thus far.

So what is driving this pro-Brown public mood? The Mirror claims former Blair aide Philip Gould is the strategy man behind Brown. Citing a memo leaked more than two years ago, they believe Gould is organising a muscular campaign and demanding Brown play to his strengths rather than grasping for new ones. This is apparently steering the determined and sober performance we have seen so far.

Regardless of speculation about who is the driving force, what cannot be so easily disputed is that Brown has measured his performance impressively and this has been helped by the recent mixed success experienced by David Cameron.

Seemingly disliked by some hardened members of his own party, and perceived by some to veer closer in style to Blair than he perhaps should, Cameron has had a fairly rotten time of it recently. When the floods hit, Brown was there by the water’s edge in drizzling rain; Cameron was pictured far away in Rwanda. He had in fact made an appearance in his own constituency earlier in the flood period, but it was the Rwanda trip that stuck. The press didn’t let him or us forget this, and even the Daily Mail was warm in its praise for Brown’s initial handlings. Among other things, his puncturing of the supercasino dream was also well received by the press.

This positive coverage has helped carry Brown through his honeymoon period, and fuelled talk of a snap election and securing a ‘proper’ mandate. We know that new leaders are generally afforded the benefit of the doubt by the public, but equally, a honeymoon period peppered with terrorist plots, flooding, and an ominous foot and mouth outbreak cannot be seen as the easiest first months of any premiership. Most recently, the heightened debate surrounding youth gun crime and its tragic consequences has created a new political battleground for the leaders to argue causes, present solutions, and attempt to win the debate.

Up to this point the Brown bounce has probably been driven by multiple factors, all of which have contributed to his early good showing. With Blair’s prolonged departure this period of waiting to be ‘out with the old’ wore the public down and the polls showed this. As such, it could be argued that these recent months have not so much seen a ‘Brown’ bounce, but an ‘end of Blair’ bounce.

Unfortunately for the Conservatives, Cameron is seen by some to sit closely to the old Blair model, not only in the eyes of some of his party members but also to the press, who can associate and discriminate using the broadest of strokes.

The Tories should not be written off though: they remain steadily placed and this will become more apparent if the current Labour bounce starts to arc. A true test of Gordon Brown will come, and soothsayers will keep arguing this point. It may not be the actual issues of flooding or terrorism or gun crime that tarnish Brown, but the British public’s mood in response to these. Able to fluctuate in response to the barest of rhymes and reason, the electorate can yet turn on Brown and his government.

Julia Clark is the Head of Policy at Ipsos MORI and can be contacted here. James Baglin is a Research Executive at Ipsos MORI and can be contacted here.

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