Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 23, April 2008

Presidential Prospecting

By Jacob Coy

I am in the wrong business. If only I charged 20p for every time I’ve been asked who will win the US Presidential election, I wouldn’t need to work. While I would gladly collect my pence, the inquisitor would likely be disappointed when I told them that it is really impossible to guess about a situation that remains extremely fluid; an American may have a better understanding of the rather belaboured and convoluted primary nomination process, but citizenship does not bring with it clairvoyance.

Nevertheless, here are the lines of argument for each candidate to win. We must bear in mind that the election will likely be very, very close with only a few thousand popular votes in a handful of states delivering the winner-take-all electoral votes for those states needed to win the presidency. (Much like the primaries, Americans don’t actually elect the President. Instead, they nominate their state’s electors to the Electoral College.)

John McCain

The Republicans have nominated a national hero who has made a career of selflessly giving to his country. He served as a pilot in the Navy, cheating death by fire once before being shot down on a sortie in north Vietnam . As a prisoner of war, he was tortured with ropes and beatings on an almost daily basis. In the face of this, he refused to be handed back over to the Americans unless his fellow prisoners were also released. As a US Senator from Arizona , he has been a stalwart advocate of cleaning up politics and returning power to the people. He is a populist candidate with humble roots and few pretensions. When his campaign was at its lowest—when he was doing rallies of 40 people and staying in cheap motels—he never lost faith in his country and his purpose for running to be president. He represents a fundamental break with the Bush years, despite having quickly captured the endorsement of the sitting president. He will make a very convincing argument to the American people that he is the only person running with the understanding and the knowledge to be Commander-in-Chief. He has assembled an excellent team of experts on domestic policy. Regardless of who is named as the Democratic nominee, McCain will attract at least 40 per cent of the vote. I believe that he can count on 150+ electoral college votes (270 are needed to win). That doesn’t include some states that he is likely to win, including Arkansas , Florida , New Mexico , and Colorado .

Hillary Clinton

Senator Hillary Clinton has proven herself as a resilient and fearless campaigner. Her narrative of experience and sound judgment is making significant progress in every state according to recent polls. She is very likely to coast easily to victory in Pennsylvania—the next big primary contest—by a wide margin. In fact, most of the states hereafter strongly favour Clinton , meaning that by the convention, the delegate count for both Democrat nominees will be extremely close. This will favour Clinton because she will then be able to make the argument to the super-delegates that she is the best candidate to beat John McCain in November: the longer game plays very much to her advantage. The more people discover about Barack Obama, the less they like of him and the less confidence they have to install him as president. The controversy surrounding Reverend Jeremiah Wright wasn’t a one-off chance association—rather, it is exactly the kind of scrutiny and negative media that will continue to hound Obama and alienate moderate voters. While Obama has won in a larger number of states, many are ones that no Democrat can hope to win in a general election. Wyoming , Nebraska and Idaho last voted Democrat in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson defeated Barry Goldwater in a landslide. Contrast that with Clinton ’s credentials. She is without question the strongest candidate on policy. She has by far the most number of endorsements from other elected officials in the US . She has by far the most experienced team of advisers, most of whom have worked in the White House before. As before, when it’s time for the crucial vote, super-delegates will vote for Clinton .

Barack Obama

Senator Barack Obama has been nothing short of a phenomenon in American politics. Even some of the most critical observers believe that he is a once in a generation politician who combines charisma, candour, electability, and empathy with many Americans’ lives. Laying aside the comparisons with Robert Kennedy and Martin Luther King, supporters and observers from across the progressive political spectrum believe that, as much as any one person can, Obama is the ideal person to set America on a better course in the post-Bush years. This is exactly why Clintonians and conservatives alike are ruthlessly attacking him with everything they have to tear him down early. But none of this is working to any great effect. The recent controversy concerning the incendiary comments of Reverend Wright had two main effects. Firstly, it reaffirmed him as a religious man, but one who might not always agree with everything spoken from the pulpit of his church (a very common American experience). Secondly, it inspired him to candidly address the issue of race in a speech that many of called one of the greatest speeches on the subject in America in the last 40 years.

Support for Obama isn’t just emotive and anecdotal. Consider this—over one million people have dipped into their own pockets to write Barack Obama a cheque in support of his candidacy. That is one in every 300 people of the entire American population. No one has ever come close to having such a broad base of financial support. Furthermore, it is mathematically very difficult for Hillary Clinton to win the pledged state delegates, particularly given that no agreement can be reached on doing another vote in Michigan and Florida . She would have to win the remaining states by very considerable margins and stem the tide of her delegates, which seem to coming unstuck in places like Texas where Obama has clearly won out. All of this conflates to give Obama an incredibly powerful narrative as the presumptive nominee and one that he doesn’t even have to make—House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (one of the three most powerful Democrats in the country) has said that the super-delegates should not vote against the popular vote because to do so would be undemocratic.

So then, who will it be? Ultimately, we must anticipate that external factors will play as much a part in the selection of the 44th President of the United States as anything the candidates do themselves. The economy, the war on terror, and the ongoing situation in Iraq all contain a multitude of variables beyond the candidates’ control. Responding effectively to those will show who is best suited to lead the country. Ultimately, this is an endurance race for each candidate. The one that goes the distance to November—crafting the best narrative to respond to America ’s challenges in the 21 st Century; mobilising the broadest base of support and withstanding the pressure of that spotlight—will win. Based on what’s visible now, I believe that looks likely to be Senator Obama. But, don’t ask for your 20p back if I’m wrong.

Jacob Coy can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9535 or click here to email.

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