Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 27, August 2008

Silly season turning into a scary season for Labour

By Andrew Naylor

No one can really criticise Brown for his sartorial preferences while on holiday—he’s had a lot on his mind recently. The Glasgow East by-election was a disaster for the Prime Minister. It could prove to be the tipping point after a series of unexpected electoral tests for the Labour Party, which one by one have sent jitters down the spine of every Labour MP.

Nowhere seems safe—class is no longer a barrier to electoral success. Both Tory toffs and middle-class Scottish Nationalists can now win in previously safe, working-class Labour seats. One time Labour Party strongholds have become fair game for the opposition. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has already drawn up additional plans for his party to target 50 key Labour seats, and the Conservatives are now advertising for extra Campaign Directors—presumably to focus on the seats they once considered to be impossible to win and a waste of resources to even try.

After the local and London Mayoral elections in May, Brown promised to “listen and to lead”. Within three weeks his leadership was tested once again at Crewe and Nantwich. This time, he blamed the failure on the electorate’s concern with the global economic situation. His task was “to steer the British economy through what have been very difficult times”. This same analysis of the best way forward was made after losing Glasgow East: “My full focus is on taking people through these difficult times,” was his response to the results.

Recent murmurings of discontent among Labour MPs must surely now be diverting his focus from guiding Britain through turbulent economic waters to his own survival. MPs in hitherto safe Labour constituencies will be wondering how secure their seats are under Brown’s premiership.

Ironically it may be arch-Blairite David Miliband who provides a ray of hope to the traditional left of the Party. Writing in The Guardian, Miliband stated that the Government must enter “a radical new phase” if it is to win a fourth term in office. Backbench Labour MPs are sharpening their knives, and some of the unions are openly calling Brown to go. A change in leadership is certainly radical, but it is questionable whether a new leader could escape the inevitable demands to hold an immediate election—a tactic which could prove suicidal.

One thing is for sure, though: Brown waited 10 years for the top post—and he certainly won’t let go of it without a fight.

Andrew Naylor can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9536 or click here to email.