Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 21, February 2008

Exploring the fallout of Super Tuesday

By Jacob Coy

The first Democratic-Republican President, Thomas Jefferson, was purported to have stated, “Delay is preferable to error.” The modern-day inheritors of that political party legacy are very much hoping that his wisdom endures. The painfully protracted process for the Democratic nomination shows no sign of waning as both candidates have a broad base of support amongst voters, sophisticated campaign machines, and an extremely high national profile. Mere mortals would have been forced to bow out long ago. These are not ordinary candidates, but neither is the prize at the end.

What are we to make of the past ‘super days’ in America? In the Super Bowl, the Giants beat the Patriots—to ruin an otherwise perfect season. I wondered if this would foreshadow the outcome of Super Tuesday, with Hillary Clinton as the New York giant beating Barack Obama, the visionary patriot. It might still happen, but as in Sunday’s game, she’ll need to do it just like her home team did, in the waning moments of a hard fought match.

Super Tuesday was not the knock-out blow that many would have anticipated only a few months or weeks ago. Senator John Edwards’ withdrawal from the race and the transition from the early primaries focused on single states to national contests seemed but trivial details for the candidates. Neither stumbled or bungled; both responded when they needed to do so with clutch moves. After Clinton’s sort-of-win in Nevada, all seemed dark for Obama. But he not only pulled out a victory in South Carolina, but also the endorsement of Senator Ted Kennedy and their family. This morning we see that Clinton was not without her own retort—winning convincingly in the most delegate-rich states to propel her ahead. Obama’s wins across a more diverse, larger number of smaller states have kept him credibly in the contest with a deficit of about 74 delegates (including super delegates, but not including New Mexico which remains too close to call at press time).

The path ahead will be nothing less than figurative trench warfare. Obama has made yet another excellent showing at the weekend, winning all four states, even Maine, which the Clinton camp had hoped to take. My own reading is that the next few elections are likely to favour Obama. But those are tiny in comparison to what’s ahead. More important in the medium term is how Latinos continue to shape this primary. Their support was instrumental to Clinton’s victories in Nevada and California. With Texas as the next big prize, Obama absolutely must find a way to improve his appeal in order to claim its 193 delegates. Clinton is not without concerns of her own. In the past few days, her campaign was forced to admit that she has loaned it $5m and may need to put even more money in its coffers. She has just fired her campaign manager, Patti Solis Doyle—a prominent Latina woman. That suggests some sense of panic on her part. She also really needs to win somewhere other than the coasts and a few bits of the south that she would never win in November. A victory in the breadbasket or the industrial belt would do much to advance her case as a credible candidate to beat John McCain in November.

Which leads to the Republican race, in which McCain has effectively sewn up the nomination. While it is not a foregone conclusion that he will march unopposed to victory in every state, particularly in the South where he is relatively weak, winning California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey and Missouri gave him more than twice the number of delegates as Mitt Romney—who has since withdrawn from the race, having simply run out of states with enough delegates to overcome such a large deficit. A feisty Mike Huckabee still trails far behind McCain, but thus far has put up an incredibly tough fight. His strong showing in the South has demonstrated his appeal and raised his profile in the event that some might be thinking about him for another post (hint, hint, wink, wink).

All eyes within the Republican Party are now on McCain. While he is in a luxurious position of not having to fight so hard, there remains a good deal of work to be done. He needs to convince the base to mobilise for him. Between now and the Convention in St Paul, he will court the different constituencies of the party to ensure that they will fully support his candidacy in November.

Meanwhile, there is little doubt that he’s rooting for Clinton. In a recent poll of Republican insiders published by the venerable publication, National Journal, an astounding 72 per cent of Republicans thought that Obama would prove the more difficult candidate to beat in November. One respondent captured the sentiment almost perfectly, saying, “Hillary Clinton is the likely nominee, but she is paying a high price to win the slot. The Democrat primary is defining her perfectly for the Republicans.”

And with the Louisiana primary just past, what a delicious helping of déjà vu does brew! Let us not forget, McCain has waited a long, long time for this moment. I remember very vividly in the spring of 2000 thinking that he was in fact the better choice for the Republican nomination. The right man—but the wrong time. He was beaten and bruised by the Bush machine, which quite simply out-muscled him down the stretch. While his was a campaign of aspirations, grassroots and battle buses, theirs succeeded by tapping up the long-established networks of contacts, outspending and even using dirty tricks when necessary. Thus he had to wait—temper his ambition and put up with the delay. Now he must be thinking that delay is preferable to disaster—just as Barack Obama must be hoping that history doesn’t repeat itself.

Jacob Coy can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9535 or click here to email.