Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 20, January 2008

Primary colours: Analysing the race to the White House

By Jacob Coy

The US Presidential election is one of the longest in the world with the work for most serious contenders starting in years ending in 5 and 1 (e.g. 2005 or 2001) and finishing three years afterwards in the arduous, convoluted primary and caucus contests. These state by state elections will, without fail, unpick millions of dollars of resources and countless hours of work in just a few days.

Sadly for most in 2008, that is the reality. They will be but footnotes in Presidential election history, their names—Dodd, Biden, Paul, Richardson, Hunter, Tancredo—having little staying power in the memories of all but the most dedicated anoraks.

As for the rest, they have the political fight of their lives ahead of them. What they carry forward are lessons from the last few days which have been learned through the sweet moments, the scars and the rubbish polling. For Barack Obama, he must have learned a bit about managing expectations and the challenge of fighting the Clinton machine. John McCain has learned never to count out certain people as his political friends, if only by circumstance. Mitt Romney is more sure than ever that it’s not money alone that can buy you a place at the head table. Mike Huckabee now knows what it is like to sail against the immense headwinds of the Republican establishment. And as for Hillary Clinton—that if she’s going to win it, she’s going to have to fight every single step of the way with absolutely everything she has. People don’t ‘buy’ her—she ‘sells’ her credentials and competence to them.

After Clinton’s 2.8% victory in New Hampshire, the race for the Democratic nomination is more wide open than ever. Clinton came back from doubts all weekend and put up a fight for her political life. By all accounts, she commanded all of her resources into winning that race, as to do anything otherwise would call into doubt serious questions about her candidacy. Has she erased those? Not entirely, though she has certainly done much to stem the tide of the ‘Obama-rama love-in’ across the media. However, some may question why, with all of her inherent advantages, she was only able to marshal a 2.8% margin in a demographically friendly state.

Of course hindsight is always right, but Obama showed his naïveté to let expectations balloon out of control in what is essentially one big expectations game. A month ago, the Obama camp would have been thrilled to lose by fewer than 8,000 people. Now expectations and poor polling have stemmed his tide and taken away the advantage of momentum. Obama must stay positive, while deftly painting Clinton as the Northern Liberal; a divider who so many hate.

Clinton must continue to fight. If she does well in South Carolina, she could see the delegates cascade in on Super Tuesday. States such as California are very Hillary-friendly. But she has to buck a trend. The only Democratic winner of the last seven New Hampshire primaries to become president was none other than Bill Clinton in 1996 as the sitting President.

The only option for John Edwards is to win. Without a win in South Carolina, which should be fertile ground for him, he is simply not going to be credible going into 5 February.

The Republican field is arguably even more open, though looks may deceive. The establishment has been in a breathless panic about Huckabee potentially getting the nomination. His populist messages—that he’s not from George W Bush’s Washington; railing against corporate greed; a flat tax; and somewhat protectionist economic inclinations—have really scared the horses. In the meantime, they have rallied around McCain, who now has significant momentum. Romney, despite massive spending, has not managed to win. Two second place finishes certainly haven’t given him the traction he needs. His campaign has to start asking, if not now, when? How? South Carolina is not exactly the most friendly territory for him.

For Huckabee, on the other hand, it is like his back yard. Culturally, South Carolina is very similar to Arkansas, and failure to win there will be an ominous sign. Not being a household name, he needs the free media coverage that a win would give him before 5 February. The other questions remain around Huckabee’s ability to actually run a sophisticated enough operation to pull off enough Super Tuesday victories.

The importance of that Super Tuesday cannot be over-estimated for all of the remaining candidates. It is the true test, the moment where they must claim as many states as possible. It also requires a real shift in tactics. No longer will campaigns be able to employ a laser-like focus on a few hundred thousand voters. With over 2,000 delegates at stake from California to Massachusetts and Minnesota to New Mexico, the campaigns will have to go national in the true test of who appeals to hundreds of millions of Americans. In this way, despite its quirks, arduous process, and duration—the primary process actually works well to determine who is best placed to represent their party in the General Election in November.

Jacob Coy can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9535 or click here to email.

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