Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 26, July 2008

The Lisbon Treaty: when Irish eyes are no longer smiling

By Mark Twigg

June has seen European capital cities engulfed in shuttle diplomacy in the wake of Ireland’s no vote in a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. In the immediate aftermath of the Irish rejection, EU foreign ministers gathered in Luxembourg for talks on how to respond. This was then followed by a two-day EU summit in Brussels. Separately, French President Nicholas Sarkozy made a whistle-stop visit to Prague for talks with the Czech, Polish, Hungarian and Slovak leaders. While the public may not grasp the political nuance, they do know that all this unscheduled activity gives off a whiff of panic.

Two key questions will face Europe’s leaders in the coming weeks and months: they will need to understand why the referendum come up with such a clear ‘No’ and what changes could be made to accommodate the disparate concerns of Irish voters. They also need to work out how soon a second vote might be possible, if at all. Put simply, is the Lisbon Treaty dead in the water? Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen has said there is no obvious solution for a way forward.

The treaty cannot be implemented unless approved by all 27 EU states. It is due to come into force on 1 January 2009. Most of the Union has already ratified the Treaty through their national Parliaments. Only Ireland is obliged – by its own constitution – to hold a referendum on matters of constitutional significance. Of course, for those countries still in the process of ratification they must ask themselves how and whether to proceed?

Ireland’s verdict does leave the EU in a tricky, though not insurmountable, challenge. After all the Irish also rejected the Nice Treaty, which was ultimately adopted in the end. In the week after the Irish no vote, Irish Foreign Minister Michael Martin said it was "far too early" to seek solutions. However, it is equally clear that people aren’t ready to pull the plug on the Lisbon Treaty just yet. The majority of EU member states have indicated a consensus view that those who have yet to ratify the treaty should carry on and do so.

Money can’t buy you love

Ireland’s decision has left many scratching their hands. After all, Ireland has been a massive net recipient of EU cash. It was said that at one point for every euro that Dublin paid in, it got six euros back. Given the extent to which Ireland has benefited from EU regional development grants over the years – and Ireland is festooned with roadside signs bearing European flags at most major redevelopment projects, providing a visible symbol of the EU’s financial largesse – how could the Irish possibly vote down vital reforms to the EU? Isn’t this rather like biting the hand that feeds it?

Possibly. However, the English language is full of idioms and there may be another which more aptly describes the Irish mood. Perhaps voting for Lisbon would be rather like turkeys voting for Christmas.

For many in ‘old Europe’ the Lisbon Treaty signals the start not just of a larger, more inclusive Europe, but one in which the financial spoils don’t look as promising as they once did. For countries such as Sweden or the UK, which have always been net contributors to the EU’s coffers, griping about the financial benefits of European union is nothing new. However, for countries like Ireland the EU’s expansion has come as something of a culture shock.

Ireland has not done terribly well out of this expansion, which has brought with it an end to European Union largesse. Faced with a large influx of poorer Eastern states, the richer Western members clearly needed to curb their generosity. Propping up inefficient French farmers was all well and good in a smaller union of comprising largely rich nations. However, propping up Romanian farmers in a larger union with more ‘middle income’ and, dare I say, poor member states was never going to prove economically or politically viable.

Enlarging the EU has been a great foreign policy success, helping to reform Eastern and Southern Europe both economically and politically. It has helped to secure democracy and freedom across the whole region. However, these benefits count for little back in old Europe when they see that it comes with a price tag. Ireland will be a big loser – and the Irish know it.

Taken in this context, Ireland’s decision to vote down the Lisbon Treaty should not be seen with an air of surprise. Nor should it be blamed on purely domestic factors coming to the fore. For Europe’s leaders to mock their electorates with false shows of disbelief that such a thing could happen simply makes them look more aloof and more distant than they already are. The truth is that Ireland’s verdict on European expansion had an air of inevitability about it.

Once you move beyond the political elites, there are plenty of people in Western Europe who do not welcome open borders with the peoples of the east. Stereotypes about Polish plumbers, Romanian travellers and the like are all too common. The ‘cosy’ club of the old EU 15 has been shattered; in its place, the EU 27 appears far less familiar or comforting. Why would anyone vote for that?

Mark Twigg can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9537 or click here to email.