Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 26, July 2008

Humiliation in Henley: the Government’s woes continue

By Laura Chisholm

Although the Conservatives were never going to be defeated in the Henley by-election, neither the Liberal Democrats nor the Labour Party will find it easy to brush off the results.

Labour expected to lose their deposit, which they did. But they were also relegated to fifth place, behind the BNP and the Greens, and received a paltry 1,066 votes. Talk about being kicked when you’re down. To add insult to injury, the result coincided with Gordon Brown’s one year anniversary; cue endless articles about his annus horribilis.

According to a YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph published on 27 June, just 16 per cent of voters now think that Brown will lead his party on to win the next general election. This is down from 62 per cent last summer. Two-thirds now believe the Prime Minister to be an electoral liability. The recent departure of several of Brown’s long serving aides from Downing Street reinforces the impression of an isolated and dejected leader.

It’s unlikely this situation will be reversed over the next year. People have stopped listening to the Government and it is hard to see what will make them tune in again. Try as the Government might to plough on with the business of running the country, it’s just not resonating. But then, who wants to hear politicians talk about “empowering citizens who use public services”, as in a recent Cabinet Office document, when it costs you a small fortune to fill up your car?

The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, ploughed significant resources into Henley. Their strategists will be wondering why their campaign just bounced off the Conservative majority. There were rows about the content of the Liberal Democrat literature, and at one point the Conservatives threatened legal action. Could negative Lib Dem campaign tactics be starting to wear a bit thin with the voters? It’s more likely that the electorate just stops listening altogether when parties get into slanging matches about the content of pamphlets. It’s also the case that the Conservatives are just, well, better now.

The Conservatives are making much of the fact that this is the first time ‘since 1984’ that they have won a by-election convincingly against the Liberal Democrats. As they should - efficiently fending off the ‘yellow peril’ is a crucial feather in the cap of the Conservative campaign team. Fighting on the defensive presents very different challenges from running an offensive campaign.

For Labour, the fact that the Conservatives can beat the Liberal Democrats is an added pressure as it makes an overall Tory majority at the next election more likely.

Henley’s result is sandwiched between two more exciting by-elections, Crewe and Nantwich and Haltemprice and Howden. It is still an extremely nice moment for the Conservatives. Downing Street will be glad that no anniversary party was planned - as right now there’s nothing for Labour to celebrate.

Laura Chisholm can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9536 or click here to email.