Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 24, May 2008

Out with the old, in with the older

By Chris Jackson

Italy has had 62 different governments since the end of World War II. To put this in context Newcastle United Football Club, whose turnover of managers is infamous, has gone through only 28 managers during the same time period.

In mid-April, Silvio Berlusconi won a crushing victory in the Italian general election to become the Prime Minister for a third time. The 71-year-old perma-tanned media mogul defeated Walter Veltroni, the 52-year-old leader of the Democratic Party, by a substantial margin. Berlusconi was given a large enough majority to rule Italy for a full five-year term.

With Italy facing falling growth, vast public debt, declining economic competitiveness and public frustration about losing ground to the rest of Europe, Berlusconi looks to have his work cut out in his third bite of the prime ministerial cherry. When analysing why Berlusconi was elected with such a majority one might be forgiven for assuming that he is a reformed character with the drive, intellect and vision to change Italy’s current fortunes. Sadly for the Italian populace, though, Berlusconi’s ascendancy to power was largely due to a promising but ineffectual left-wing collective and a degree of wistful affection from those in the north.

Though Berlusconi’s ambition to rebuild Italy’s prestige is strong and genuine, the argument that he can lead the nation back to modernity is a complete fallacy. How can Italy recast itself as a vibrant European democracy and economy when its Prime Minister spent his previous time in office largely preoccupied with escaping his own legal problems? Furthermore, Berlusconi could easily give Rupert Murdoch, Robert Maxwell, Marshall Naify and Conrad Black a run for their money in the all-time media mogul stakes.

There are certain similarities between Berlusconi’s facelifts, tummy tucks and hair transplants and his economic policies: they are all cosmetic and expensive, but ultimately achieve little. If only the Italian economy was a tight as his forehead and the public purse as plump as his lips, though. For instance, saving the terminally loss-making flag carrier Alitalia is deemed to be a core national imperative for Berlusconi—but handing out tax cuts when the country requires sustained investment will do little to solve Italy’s problems, bar keeping Berlusconi’s bedfellow’s happy.

However, there is a chance—albeit a small one—that Berlusconi could change his legislative concerns this time around. His media group Mediaset is now more diversified and not saddled with as much debt as it was last time around. Hopefully this will mean that there is less of an incentive for Berlusconi to confuse his personal business interests with governing the country (an easy mistake to make). Moreover, some commentators have suggested that Berlusconi’s roving eye is now secured on his place in history, rather than go-go girls or his own businesses.

As for Veltroni—although he lost the election, he nevertheless helped bring about a revolution in Italian politics. In the past, the Italian parliament was filled with dozens of squabbling parties (Romano Prodi’s government, for example, comprised 11 separate parties). But in this election, Veltroni and Berlusconi together captured more than 70 per cent of the vote between them, heralding the beginning of a two-party system.

So where does this leave their country? Italy is still in danger of institutionalising its position as the ailing man of Europe, and being overtaken by number of Eastern European states. Berlusconi may have been regarded as the best of a bad bunch by electorate this time round but it is debatable whether he has the conviction to drive Italy through these difficult times: he is a symptom of, rather than a solution to, Italy’s ills. Which isn’t to say that the situation is completely bleak: should the nascent two-party system evolve further, it is very possible that the opposition party will be able to put Berlusconi under some heat and melt his grandiose visions of himself and what he can get away with.

Chris Jackson can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9530 or click here to email.