Cicero Policy Briefer

Issue 41, November 2009
 

Poll crunching: What do the numbers and trends really say?

By Georgie Rawkins

The most recent Populus poll, the results of which were published today, has revealed that the Conservatives are down a point at 39 per cent, and Labour down by the same amount, at 29 per cent. But the implications of this are more serious than the comparatively small size of the downturn in support for the Conservatives would lead us to believe. For the first time in the last year, the Tories now have a smaller majority than Labour held when they won the 1997 election.

The apparent weakness of the Labour party and the seemingly ever-increasing level of hostility directed towards Gordon Brown have seduced people into believing that the Conservatives will “walk” the next general election. This simply is not the case. It can certainly be argued that David Cameron seems to be enjoying more support than Gordon Brown, but much of this superiority seems to stem more from dissatisfaction with the incumbent party, rather than outright admiration of the Conservative manifesto.

With only 10 points between the two major parties, which amounts to a Tory lead of two seats, it can be argued that Labour still has everything to play for; as the incumbent, it is still possible for them to significantly close the Tory lead before the spring. This position is reinforced as we cannot dismiss a change of leadership for Labour; if Peter Mandelson, one of the most effective political operators in the party, puts his hat in the ring, it is difficult to predict how much additional Labour support this may garner. We have already seen much fluctuation in the polls in the last couple of months; the YouGov poll published on November 5 and the AngusReid poll published on November 6 both gave the Conservatives a 14 point rather than 10 point lead over Labour (at 41 per cent—27 per cent and 38 per cent—24 per cent respectively). Using the figures from the latest Populus poll, even a 5 per cent uniform swing in favour of Labour could destroy the Tories’ chances of a landslide victory, and make even a slight majority difficult to achieve.

Notwithstanding its mention at every election in recent memory, rarely with any grounds, the distinct possibility of a hung parliament remains, encouraged particularly by the Liberal Democrats, who have repeatedly suggested a coalition government with a minority Labour party, clearly drawn by the fact that Labour would support the practice of electoral reform.

Despite seemingly having the stronger hand in this game, the Tories still have several stumbling blocks to overcome. Ironically, the Sun’s much-publicised shift in loyalty from Labour to Conservative may well prove to be one of them. Their recent coverage of Brown’s health and handwriting seems only to have succeeding in encouraging a modicum of sympathy for our benighted Prime Minister, a chink in the dour Presbyterian armour in a manner of speaking. The extremely low level of support in Scotland (21 per cent to Labour’s 32 per cent according to the AngusReid poll) for the Conservatives is evidently a great thorn in their side, and at such disastrous levels, it is hard to see how they will win over the traditional Labour heartlands of the north before a general election.

A further foreseeable problem for them could be the economy. If those oft-repeated “green shoots” really are pushing up through the earth and if it is perceived that the country is indeed coming out of recession, this could spell trouble for the Conservatives. As a party, led in this by George Osborne, they have taken an extremely hard line on the over-spending and over-leveraging that played no small part in leading the country into the financial crisis; this tough talk of austerity and cut-backs may backfire if people start to feel more prosperous and entitled to begin spending with reckless and ostentatious abandon once more.

However, these very fluctuations in the polls mean that we should be wary before we jump to any major conclusions. We should remember that politics is a fickle game, and with several months until the spring and a likely general election, the political allegiances of the British public, not withstanding the rising apathy apparent in the population, may swing far more widely before winding down to a conclusion.

Georgie Rawkins can be contacted on +44 (0)20 7665 9530 or click here to email.